Towards impact-based early warning of drought: a generic framework for drought impact prediction in the UK

Bulut, Burak ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4567-5258; Magee, Eugene; Armitage, Rachael ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-5338-4756; Adedipe, Opeyemi E.; Tanguy, Maliko ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1516-6834; Barker, Lucy J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2913-0664; Hannaford, Jamie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5256-3310. 2025 Towards impact-based early warning of drought: a generic framework for drought impact prediction in the UK. EGUsphere, egusphere-2025-3176. 10.5194/egusphere-2025-3176

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Abstract/Summary

Drought impact forecasting is essential for enhancing preparedness and mitigation strategies. However, identifying key predictors and achieving reliable predictions remains challenging. Previous studies have shown promise in developing indicator-impact relationships and yet these are often region- and impact type-specific. Here, utilized the European Drought Impact Inventory (EDII), and a wide range of meteorological and hydrological predictors, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and soil moisture indices (SSMI), to develop a generalized forecasting framework for predicting drought impacts in the UK across different lead times. We firstly compared multiple machine learning models for drought impact prediction and identified Random Forest (RF) as the most effective model. Our results show that RF delivers the highest accuracy for short-term forecasts (0–3 months), with performance declining beyond six months, similar to trends observed in weather prediction models. At longer lead times, the model incorporates a broader set of predictors to maintain accuracy. Key findings highlight the importance of long-accumulation-period drought indicators, particularly SPEI24, and deep-layer soil moisture (SSMI L4), which were identified as the most influential predictors. A generalized model approach was employed, aggregating drought impacts from various regions, and the model was validated using unseen datasets from within the UK, using parts of the EDII UK dataset held back from the training, confirming its robustness. A pilot application to a completely different country (Germany) highlights the potential for extrapolation to new domains. Gridded impact predictions were also developed, and successfully captured the spatial distribution of observed impacts, and a spatially explicit evaluation showed reasonable agreement between predicted and observed drought impacts. Although uncertainties persist, particularly for long lead times, our findings suggest that a generalized approach based on hydrometeorological indices provides an effective framework for operational drought impact forecasting, supporting early warning systems and decision-making in drought risk management.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.5194/egusphere-2025-3176
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Water and Climate Science (2025-) UKCEH Fellows
Additional Information:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
NORA Subject Terms:	Hydrology
Related URLs:	Discussion paper
Date made live:	21 Jul 2025 09:25 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539884

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