Soil moisture gradients strengthen mesoscale convective systems by increasing wind shear

Barton, Emma J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5945-9244; Klein, Cornelia ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6686-0458; Taylor, Christopher M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0120-3198; Marsham, John ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3219-8472; Parker, Douglas J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2335-8198; Maybee, Ben ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7834-9489; Feng, Zhe ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7540-9017; Leung, L. Ruby ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3221-9467. 2025 Soil moisture gradients strengthen mesoscale convective systems by increasing wind shear. Nature Geoscience. 10, pp. 10.1038/s41561-025-01666-8

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Abstract/Summary

Mesoscale convective systems are a class of storm linked to extensive flooding and other destructive hazards in many regions globally. In West Africa, soil moisture impacts provide a valuable source of predictability for mature storm hazards, but little is known about mature storm sensitivity to soil moisture in other climatic regions. Here we use a storm track dataset, satellite observations and reanalysis fields to investigate the response of mature storms to soil moisture in seven global storm hotspots—West Africa, India, South America, South Africa, Australia and the United States Great Plains. We demonstrate that mesoscale soil moisture gradients (~500 km)can enhance storms by driving increased vertical wind shear conditions, a crucial ingredient for storm organization, through the strengthening of atmospheric temperature gradients. This is evidenced by a 10–30% increase in precipitation feature size and rainfall for the largest storms on days with favourable soil moisture gradients compared with unfavourable gradients. Global simulations confirm that soil moisture gradients influence windshear. The results demonstrate the importance of soil moisture feedbacks for accurate forecasting of mesoscale convective systems and future projections of extreme events under climate change.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1038/s41561-025-01666-8
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Water and Climate Science (2025-)
ISSN:	1752-0894
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	atmospheric dynamics, natural hazards
NORA Subject Terms:	Meteorology and Climatology Atmospheric Sciences
Related URLs:	Dataset Dataset Dataset Dataset Code
Date made live:	04 Apr 2025 12:20 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539220

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