Predicting climate-change impacts on the global glacier-fed stream microbiome
Bourquin, Massimo 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4187-7485; Peter, Hannes ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9021-3082; Michoud, Grégoire ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1071-9900; Busi, Susheel Bhanu ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7559-3400; Kohler, Tyler J.; Robison, Andrew L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1628-6237; Styllas, Mike ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4385-0008; Ezzat, Leïla ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4317-6458; Geers, Aileen U. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9162-9423; Huss, Matthias ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2377-6923; Fodelianakis, Stilianos ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2186-6009; Styllas, Michael; Schön, Martina; Tolosano, Matteo; de Staercke, Vincent; Kohler, Tyler J.; Battin, Tom J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5361-2033.
2025
Predicting climate-change impacts on the global glacier-fed stream microbiome.
Nature Communications, 16, 1264.
12, pp.
10.1038/s41467-025-56426-4
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Abstract/Summary
The shrinkage of glaciers and the vanishing of glacier-fed streams (GFSs) are emblematic of climate change. However, forecasts of how GFS microbiome structure and function will change under projected climate change scenarios are lacking. Combining 2,333 prokaryotic metagenome-assembled genomes with climatic, glaciological, and environmental data collected by the Vanishing Glaciers project from 164 GFSs draining Earth’s major mountain ranges, we here predict the future of the GFS microbiome until the end of the century under various climate change scenarios. Our model framework is rooted in a space-for-time substitution design and leverages statistical learning approaches. We predict that declining environmental selection promotes primary production in GFSs, stimulating both bacterial biomass and biodiversity. Concomitantly, predictions suggest that the phylogenetic structure of the GFS microbiome will change and entire bacterial clades are at risk. Furthermore, genomic projections reveal that microbiome functions will shift, with intensified solar energy acquisition pathways, heterotrophy and algal-bacterial interactions. Altogether, we project a ‘greener’ future of the world’s GFSs accompanied by a loss of clades that have adapted to environmental harshness, with consequences for ecosystem functioning.
| Item Type: | Publication - Article |
|---|---|
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI): | 10.1038/s41467-025-56426-4 |
| UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas: | Environmental Pressures and Responses (2025-) |
| ISSN: | 2041-1723 |
| Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: | Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link. |
| Additional Keywords: | ecological modelling, microbial ecology, water microbiology |
| NORA Subject Terms: | Ecology and Environment Glaciology Data and Information |
| Related URLs: | |
| Date made live: | 14 Feb 2025 14:13 +0 (UTC) |
| URI: | https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/538912 |
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