National horizon scanning for future crops under a changing UK climate

Redhead, John W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2233-3848; Brown, Matt; Price, Jeff; Robinson, Emma ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3746-4517; Nicholls, Robert J.; Warren, Rachel; Pywell, Richard F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6431-9959. 2025 National horizon scanning for future crops under a changing UK climate. Climate Resilience and Sustainability, 4 (1), e70007. 15, pp. 10.1002/cli2.70007

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.70007

Abstract/Summary

Most national assessments of climate change‐related risks to agriculture focus on the productivity of existing crops. However, one adaptation option is to switch to alternative crops better suited to changing local climates. Spatially explicit projections of relative climatic suitability across a wide range of crops can identify which ones might be viable alternatives. Parametrising process‐based models for multiple crops is complex, so there is value in using simpler approaches to ‘horizon scan’ to identify high‐level issues and target further research. We present a horizon scan approach based on EcoCrop data, producing mapped changes in suitability under +2°C and +4°C warming scenarios (above pre‐industrial), for over 160 crops across the United Kingdom. For the United Kingdom, climate change is likely to bring opportunities to diversify cropping systems. Many current and potential new crops show widespread increases in suitability under a +2°C warming scenario. However, under a +4°C scenario, several current crops (e.g. onions, strawberries, oats, wheat) begin to show declines in suitability in the region of the United Kingdom where most arable crops are currently grown. Whilst some new crops with increasing suitability may offer viable alternatives (e.g. soy, chickpea, grapes), the greatest average increases in suitability across crops occur outside the UK's current areas of greatest agricultural production. Realising these opportunities would thus be likely to require substantial changes to current farming systems and supply chains. By highlighting these opportunities and challenges, our approach provides potentially valuable information to farmers and national assessments.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1002/cli2.70007
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Biodiversity and Land Use (2025-) Hydroclimate Extremes and Resilience (2025-) National Capability and Data Science (2025-)
ISSN:	2692-4587
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	adaptation, agriculture, crops, ecocrop, spatial, UK
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Agriculture and Soil Science Meteorology and Climatology
Related URLs:	Dataset Other Dataset
Date made live:	27 Jan 2025 08:50 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/538802

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1002/cli2.70007

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Biodiversity and Land Use (2025-)
Hydroclimate Extremes and Resilience (2025-)
National Capability and Data Science (2025-)

ISSN:

2692-4587

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

adaptation, agriculture, crops, ecocrop, spatial, UK