Development of an integrated modeling framework for visibility and air quality forecasting in Delhi

Jayakumar, A.; Anurose, T.J.; Bhati, Shweta; Hendry, Margaret A.; Hayman, Garry ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3825-4156; Gordon, Hamish; Field, Paul; Mohandas, Saji; Rumbold, Heather; Yadav, Prafull; Dhangar, Narendra Gokul; Parde, Avinash; Wagh, Sandeep; Ghude, Sachin; Ross, Andrew N.; Smith, Daniel; Dorling, Stephen; George, John P.; Prasad, V.S.; Ravichandran, M.. 2025 Development of an integrated modeling framework for visibility and air quality forecasting in Delhi. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0194.1

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Abstract/Summary

Rapid urbanization has subjected the megacities of developing countries to various environmental stresses. Delhi, a major Indian megacity, faces increasing urban stress leading to reduction in air quality, and visibility. These challenges necessitate an integrated modeling framework to mitigate adverse environmental impacts on public health. Therefore, we have developed an advanced version of the high-resolution Delhi Model with Chemistry and Aerosol framework (DM-Chem) at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) under the Weather and Climate Science for Service Partnership India (WCSSP India) project. This collaborative initiative between India and the UK aims to provide real-time forecasts of visibility and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) for Delhi and neighbouring regions during the winter season. The DM Chem framework is unique due to its detailed urban canopy scheme and realistic aerosol representation, making it well-suited for city-scale forecasts. It is designed to predict extreme fog and pollution events in the winter season. Here we discuss the major physical parameterization improvements for the model, along with its skill and deficiencies in predicting extreme events. Notably, irrigation effects on surrounding agricultural areas have significantly improved fog and visibility forecasts, but have degraded the wind forecasts. We demonstrate the applicability of this modeling framework to study aerosol-radiation interaction during fog holes and discuss its potential to be applied or adapted to other megacities worldwide.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0194.1
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Hydroclimate Extremes and Resilience (2025-)
ISSN:	0003-0007
Additional Keywords:	DM-Chem, PM2.5, visibility, numerical weather prediction
NORA Subject Terms:	Meteorology and Climatology Atmospheric Sciences Data and Information
Date made live:	22 Jan 2025 08:32 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/538784

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