Evaluation of an open-source nutrient delivery model for estimating pesticide loads in river catchments

Upcott, Emily V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-3102; Keller, Virginie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4489-5363; Read, Daniel S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8546-5154; Rizzo, Clarissa; Jeans, Jude; Redhead, John W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2233-3848. 2025 Evaluation of an open-source nutrient delivery model for estimating pesticide loads in river catchments. Science of the Total Environment, 975, 179223. 13, pp. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179223

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179223

Abstract/Summary

•Quantifying pesticide runoff hazard in catchments is necessary to predict the impacts and target mitigation. Achieving this at scale through regular, long-term water quality monitoring at multiple sites is time- and resource-intensive. Ideally, such monitoring should be supplemented by models that can estimate pesticide loads in a quicker, less costly manner, especially for unmonitored catchments. •We developed a novel modelling method combining the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Nutrient Delivery Ratio (InVEST® NDR) model and the UKCEH Land Cover® plus: Pesticides maps to estimate pesticide load across England. The InVEST NDR model is a widely used, open-source pollutant runoff model, but has not yet been evaluated for use with pesticides. We compared our modelled approach with a measurement-based (“measured”) approach. This measured approach used pesticide concentration data from the Environment Agency and river flow data using Qube (a water resource estimation tool) for catchments upstream of the sampling sites: 54 for bentazone and 21 for chlorotoluron. •The significant positive relationships between measured and modelled pesticide loads were stronger when the measured approach accounted for the proportionate area of arable land cover, presumably because the modelled approach only incorporated pesticides from arable sources, explaining up to 90 % of the variation in relative hazard between catchments. Thus, our modelled method forms a flexible approach to mapping relative pesticide runoff hazard over large spatial extents, especially where monitoring is limited. It could also be used to rapidly prioritise catchments for more complex analysis to produce accurate measures of absolute loads.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179223
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Biodiversity and Land Use (2025-) Environmental Pressures and Responses (2025-) Water and Climate Science (2025-)
ISSN:	0048-9697
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Hydrology
Date made live:	31 Mar 2025 09:05 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/538091

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179223

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Biodiversity and Land Use (2025-)
Environmental Pressures and Responses (2025-)
Water and Climate Science (2025-)

ISSN:

0048-9697

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

NORA Subject Terms:

Ecology and Environment
Hydrology