Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations Under Different Levels of Geomagnetic Activity

Mooney, M.K.; Forsyth, C.; Marsh, M.S.; Bradley, L.; Finnigan, T.; Forde, F.; Garrigan, F.; Mancini‐Tuffier, C.; Mancini‐Tuffier, T.; Roberts, E.; Vessoni, P.; Powell, J.; Clark, S.; Lao, C.J.; Smith, A.; Jackson, D.R.; Bingham, S.; Sharpe, M.; Hughes, T.; Chisham, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1151-5934; Milan, S.. 2024 Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations Under Different Levels of Geomagnetic Activity. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 129 (8). 18, pp. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JA031478

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Abstract/Summary

The aurora and associated high energy particles and currents pose a space weather hazard to communication networks and ground-based infrastructure. Forecasting the location of the auroral oval forms an integral component of daily space weather operations. We evaluate a version of the OVATION-Prime 2013 auroral forecast model that was implemented for operational use at the UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Cent. Building on our earlier studies, we evaluate the ability of the OVATION-Prime 2013 model to predict the location of the auroral oval in all latitude and local time sectors under different levels of geomagnetic activity, defined by Kp. We compare the model predictions against auroral boundaries determined from IMAGE FUV data. Our analysis shows that the model performs well at predicting the equatorward extent of the auroral oval, particularly as the equatorward auroral boundary expands to lower latitudes for increasing Kp levels. The model performance is reduced in the high latitude region near the poleward auroral boundary, particularly in the nightside sectors where the model does not accurately capture the expansion and contraction of the polar cap as the open flux content of the magnetosphere changes. For increasing levels of geomagnetic activity (Kp ≥ 3), the performance of the model decreases, with the poleward edge of the auroral oval typically observed at lower latitudes than forecast. As such, the forecast poleward edge of the auroral oval is less reliable during more active and hazardous intervals.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JA031478
ISSN:	2169-9380
Additional Keywords:	auroral forecasting, forecast verification, OVATION-prime 2013, ROC scores, truth table, space weather
Date made live:	20 Aug 2024 11:09 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537882

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