Antarctic extreme seasons under 20th and 21st century climate change

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8868-4739; Caton Harrison, Thomas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7870-7039; Holmes, Caroline R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3134-555X; Lu, Hua ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9485-5082; Martineau, Patrick; Phillips, Tony ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3058-9157. 2024 Antarctic extreme seasons under 20th and 21st century climate change. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7, 276. 12, pp. 10.1038/s41612-024-00822-y

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Official URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00822-y

Abstract/Summary

In this study, available large ensemble datasets in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive were used to provide the first multi-variate overview of the evolution of extreme seasons over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean during the 20th and 21st centuries following medium-to-high radiative forcing scenarios. The results show significant differences between simulated changes in background mean climate and changes in low (10th percentile) and high (90th percentile) extreme seasons. Regional winter warming is most pronounced for cold extremes. In summer, there are more pronounced increases in high extremes in precipitation and westerly wind during the ozone hole formation period (late 20th century), affecting coastal regions and, in particular, the Antarctic Peninsula. At midlatitudes, there is a reduction in the range of summer season wind extremes. Suggested mechanisms for these differences are provided relating to sea ice retreat and westerly jet position.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1038/s41612-024-00822-y
ISSN:	23973722
Date made live:	08 Nov 2024 15:49 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537492

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1038/s41612-024-00822-y

ISSN:

23973722

Date made live:

08 Nov 2024 15:49 +0 (UTC)

URI:

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537492