Degrowth scenarios for biodiversity? Key methodological steps and a call for collaboration

Studies show that economic growth contributes to biodiversity loss and that, after a certain threshold, it does not contribute to wellbeing. Thus, when developing biodiversity scenarios, considering societal futures where economic growth is not a pre-condition deserves special attention. However, to date, degrowth scenarios have not been explored for biodiversity conservation and human wellbeing. In this paper, we explain how the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) and other approaches could be used to generate degrowth scenarios for biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people (NCP) and good quality of life (GQL) based on multiple societal values. We present key methodological steps of such an endeavour, including: (i) producing degrowth visions for high-income countries; (ii) identifying leverage points and imagining degrowth pathways; (iii) identifying key social–ecological interactions; and (iv) modelling biodiversity, NCP, and GQL along degrowth scenarios. Our proposal is framed within current theoretical, empirical, and modelling work as well as within efforts to improve scenario development across the biodiversity and climate communities. To develop degrowth scenarios for biodiversity, NCP, and GQL, we call for collaboration across natural and social sciences, quantitative and qualitative approaches, and northern and southern perspectives. This collaboration could lead to a community of practice that tests and improves the degrowth scenarios in national and international science–policy interfaces as they set out to achieve the Convention on Biological Diversity’s 2050 vision of living in harmony with nature.