Progress and challenges of demand-led co-produced sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts in Nigeria

Lawal, Kamoru A.; Olaniyan, Eniola; Ishiyaku, Ibrahim; Hirons, Linda C.; Thompson, Elisabeth; Talib, Joshua ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4183-1973; Boult, Victoria L.; Ogungbenro, Stephen Bunmi; Gbode, Imoleayo Ezekiel; Ajayi, Vincent Olanrewaju; Okogbue, Emmanuel Chilekwu; Adefisan, Elijah A.; Indasi, Victor S.; Youds, Lorraine; Nkiaka, Elias; Stone, Daithi A.; Nzekwu, Richard; Folorunso, Olusegun; Oyedepo, John A.; New, Mark G.; Woolnough, Steve J.. 2021 Progress and challenges of demand-led co-produced sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts in Nigeria. Frontiers in Climate, 3, 712502. 12, pp. 10.3389/fclim.2021.712502

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Abstract/Summary

This paper identifies fundamental issues which prevent the effective uptake of climate information services in Nigeria. We propose solutions which involve the extension of short-range (1 to 5 days) forecasts beyond that of medium-range (7 to 15 days) timescales through the operational use of current forecast data as well as improve collaboration and communication with forecast users. Using newly available data to provide seamless operational forecasts from short-term to sub-seasonal timescales, we examine evidence to determine if effective demand-led sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts can be co-produced. This evidence involves: itemization of forecast products delivered to stakeholders, with their development methodology; enumeration of inferences of forecast products and their influences on decisions taken by stakeholders; user-focused discussions of improvements on co-produced products; and the methods of evaluating the performance of the forecast products. We find that extending the production pipeline of short-range forecast timescales beyond the medium-range, such that the medium-range forecast timescales can be fed into existing tools for applying short-range forecasts, assisted in mitigating the risks of sub-seasonal climate variability on socio-economic activities in Nigeria. We also find that enhancing of collaboration and communication channels between the producers and the forecast product users helps to: enhance the development of user-tailored impact-based forecasts; increases users' trusts in the forecasts; and, seamlessly improves forecast evaluations. In general, these measures lead to more smooth delivery and increase in uptake of climate information services in Nigeria.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.3389/fclim.2021.712502
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	2624-9553
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	climate, co-production, forecast, Nigeria, S2S
NORA Subject Terms:	Meteorology and Climatology Atmospheric Sciences
Date made live:	13 Sep 2021 10:36 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/531027

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