Seasonal biological carryover dominates northern vegetation growth

Lian, Xu; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Anping; Wang, Kai; Li, Xiangyi; Buermann, Wolfgang; Huntingford, Chris ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5941-7770; Peñuelas, Josep; Xu, Hao; Myneni, Ranga B.. 2021 Seasonal biological carryover dominates northern vegetation growth. Nature Communications, 12, 983. 10, pp. 10.1038/s41467-021-21223-2

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21223-2

Abstract/Summary

The state of ecosystems is influenced strongly by their past, and describing this carryover effect is important to accurately forecast their future behaviors. However, the strength and persistence of this carryover effect on ecosystem dynamics in comparison to that of simultaneous environmental drivers are still poorly understood. Here, we show that vegetation growth carryover (VGC), defined as the effect of present states of vegetation on subsequent growth, exerts strong positive impacts on seasonal vegetation growth over the Northern Hemisphere. In particular, this VGC of early growing-season vegetation growth is even stronger than past and co-occurring climate on determining peak-to-late season vegetation growth, and is the primary contributor to the recently observed annual greening trend. The effect of seasonal VGC persists into the subsequent year but not further. Current process-based ecosystem models greatly underestimate the VGC effect, and may therefore underestimate the CO2 sequestration potential of northern vegetation under future warming.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1038/s41467-021-21223-2
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	2041-1723
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	carbon cycle, climate-change ecology
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment
Date made live:	25 Feb 2021 13:50 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/529747

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1038/s41467-021-21223-2

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)

ISSN:

2041-1723

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

carbon cycle, climate-change ecology