Modelling public health benefits of various emission control options to reduce NO2 concentrations in Guangzhou

He, Baihuiqian ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1994-4151; Heal, Mathew R.; Reis, Stefan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2428-8320. 2020 Modelling public health benefits of various emission control options to reduce NO2 concentrations in Guangzhou. Environmental Research Communications, 2 (6), 065006. 13, pp. 10.1088/2515-7620/ab9dbd

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Abstract/Summary

The local government of the megacity of Guangzhou, China, has established an annual average NO2 concentration target of 40 μg m−3 to achieve by 2020. However, the Guangzhou Ambient Air Quality Compliance Plan does not specify what constitutes compliance with this target. We investigated a range of ambition levels for emissions reductions required to meet different possible interpretations of compliance using a hybrid dispersion and land-use regression model approach. We found that to reduce average annual-mean NO2 concentration across all current monitoring sites to below 40 μg m−3 (i.e. a compliance assessment approach that does not use modelling) would require emissions reductions from all source sectors within Guangzhou of 60%, whilst to attain 40 μg m−3 everywhere in Guangzhou (based on model results) would require all-source emissions reduction of 90%. Reducing emissions only from the traffic sector would not achieve either interpretation of the target. We calculated the impacts of the emissions reductions on NO2-atttributable premature mortality to illustrate that policy assessment based only on assessment against a fixed concentration target does not account for the full public health improvements attained. Our approach and findings are relevant for NO2 air pollution control policy making in other megacities.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1088/2515-7620/ab9dbd
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Atmospheric Chemistry and Effects (Science Area 2017-24)
ISSN:	2515-7620
Additional Information:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	air pollution, urban air quality, public health, exposure, air quality limit values, emission control
NORA Subject Terms:	Health Atmospheric Sciences
Date made live:	01 Jul 2020 16:09 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/528048

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