Integrated modelling of urban spatial development under uncertain climate futures: a case study in Hungary

Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pedde, Simona; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D.A.; Harrison, Paula A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9873-3338. 2017 Integrated modelling of urban spatial development under uncertain climate futures: a case study in Hungary. Environmental Modelling & Software, 96. 251-264. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.07.005

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.07.005

Abstract/Summary

To provide fundamental decision support information for climate risk assessment in Hungary, an urban spatial development model of land cover change and population age structure dynamics was developed and applied to local integrated scenarios of climate change and stakeholder-derived socio-economic change. The four integrated scenarios for Hungary produced contrasting projections for urban patterns to 2100, but peri-urbanisation around Budapest was estimated to occur under all scenarios, together with a decline in working age population in the centres of the capital and major towns. This suggests that future urban planning needs to take into consideration the potential for underutilised urban infrastructure in the centre of the capital and pressures for social service provisioning in its outskirt. The integrated scenarios and model developed can be used in future studies to test the effectiveness of inter-sectoral policy responses in adapting urban planning to multiple climate and socio-economic challenges.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.07.005
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Parr
ISSN:	1364-8152
Additional Keywords:	integrated modelling, urban land cover change, population distribution, integrated socioeconomic and climate change scenarios, stakeholder, Hungary
NORA Subject Terms:	Economics
Date made live:	01 Aug 2017 09:19 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/517441

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.07.005

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Parr

ISSN:

1364-8152

Additional Keywords:

integrated modelling, urban land cover change, population distribution, integrated socioeconomic and climate change scenarios, stakeholder, Hungary

NORA Subject Terms:

Economics