Suitability and uncertainty of two models for the simulation of ammonia dispersion from a pig farm located in an area with frequent calm conditions

Theobald, Mark R.; Sanz-Cobena, Alberto; Vallejo, Antonio; Sutton, Mark A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6263-6341. 2015 Suitability and uncertainty of two models for the simulation of ammonia dispersion from a pig farm located in an area with frequent calm conditions. Atmospheric Environment, 102. 167-175. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.11.056

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.11.056

Abstract/Summary

We used two atmospheric dispersion models (ADMS and AERMOD) to simulate the short-range dispersion of ammonia emitted by two pig farms to assess their suitability in situations with frequent calm meteorological conditions. Simulations were carried out both using constant and temporally-varying emission rates to evaluate the effect on the model predictions. Monthly and annual mean concentrations predicted by the models at locations within one kilometre of the farms were compared with measured values. AERMOD predicted higher concentrations than ADMS (by a factor of 6–7, on average) and predicted the atmospheric concentrations more accurately for both the monthly and annual simulations. The differences between the concentrations predicted by the two models were mainly the result of different calm wind speed thresholds used by the models. The use of temporally-varying emission rates improved the performance of both models for the monthly and annual simulations with respect to the constant emission simulations. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis based on the inputs judged to be the most uncertain for the selected case study estimated a prediction uncertainty of ± a factor of two for both models with most of this due to uncertainty in emission rates.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.11.056
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Dise
ISSN:	1352-2310
Additional Keywords:	ammonia emissions, atmospheric dispersion modelling, uncertainty analysis
NORA Subject Terms:	Atmospheric Sciences
Date made live:	03 Mar 2015 12:40 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/509931

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.11.056

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Dise

ISSN:

1352-2310

Additional Keywords:

ammonia emissions, atmospheric dispersion modelling, uncertainty analysis

NORA Subject Terms:

Atmospheric Sciences