Operational systems: flood and short-term forecasting

Flooding is a major threat to many parts of Australia. This paper provides a synthesis of efforts made by the Water Information Research and Development Alliance (the Alliance) Science Program to advance the science and application of flood forecasting to ameliorate the effects of flooding. The rich heritage of hydrological modelling and forecasting research in Australia is highlighted in this paper, along with recent progress made by the Alliance under the following four science themes: uncertainty, hydrological modelling, communication of uncertain forecasts and pilot operational systems. These are the themes of the four papers selected for oral presentation at the Alliance’s Science Symposium, and on which this synthesis paper is focused. Future opportunities are identified in discussing these themes, including establishing international collaborative links to promote further exchange on research, operations and use of models and global datasets. Progress on flood forecasting under the Alliance has been remarkable and work is progressing apace towards operational implementation. A pilot flood forecasting system is proving effective in bringing together advances in models, techniques and software environments and in gaining operational experience.