Uncertainty estimation in fluvial flood forecasting applications

Sene, Kevin; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Beven, Keith; Moore, Robert J.; Whitlow, Chris; Laeger, Stefan; Cross, Richard. 2014 Uncertainty estimation in fluvial flood forecasting applications. In: Beven, Keith; Hall, Jim, (eds.) Applied uncertainty analysis for flood risk management. London, Imperial College Press, 462-498.

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A risk-based decision framework is outlined for the selection of uncertainty estimation techniques for use in real-time flood forecasting applications. The framework aims to achieve a balance between the operational requirements for probabilistic information and their use, and typical hydrological and operational constraints, such as catchment response times and computer processing power. A typology of techniques is introduced that employs the three overall categories of forward uncertainty propagation, probabilistic data assimilation and probabilistic forecast calibration. The relative strengths and limitations of each general category are contrasted, and illustrated using examples for a range of techniques and case study catchments across the UK. In conclusion, an indication is given of future research requirements in probabilistic flood forecasting.

Item Type: Publication - Book Section
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Water > WA Topic 3 - Science for Water Management > WA - 3.1 - Develop next generation methods for river flow frequency estimation and forecasting
CEH Sections/Science Areas: Reynard
ISBN: 9781848162709
Additional Keywords: fluvial, flood, forecasting, uncertainty, probabilistic, risk
NORA Subject Terms: Meteorology and Climatology
Atmospheric Sciences
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Date made live: 28 Mar 2014 12:38 +0 (UTC)

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