An 11-year validation of wave-surge modelling in the Irish Sea, using a nested POLCOMS-WAM modelling system

In the future it is believed that extreme coastal flooding events will increase (in frequency and intensity) as a result of climate change. We are investigating the flood risks in the eastern Irish Sea posed by extreme storm events. Here, an 11-year simulation (01/01/1996–01/01/2007) including wave–current interaction has been validated. These data can then be used to investigate the potential for coastal flooding in the study area. To accurately model a storm event in the eastern Irish Sea both wave effects and the influence of the external surge need to be considered. To simulate the waves, we have set up a one-way nested approach from a 1° North Atlantic model, to a 1.85 km Irish Sea model, using the state-of-the-art 3rd-generation spectral WAve Model (WAM). This allows the influence of swell to be correctly represented. The Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal-Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS) has been used to model the tide–surge interaction. To include the external surge we have set up a one-way nested approach from the 1/9° by 1/6° operational Continental Shelf surge model, to a 1.85 km Irish Sea model. For the high resolution Irish Sea model we use a POLCOMS–WAM coupled model, to allow for the effects of wave–current interaction on the prediction of surges at the coast. Using two classification schemes the coupled model is shown to be good and often very good at predicting the surge, total water elevation and wave conditions. We also find the number of low level surge events has increased in the study area over the past decade. However, this time period is too short to determine any long-term trends in the wave and surge levels.