Response of marine climate to future climate change: application to coastal regions

Here we present results from wave models of the north-east Atlantic and the north-west European continental shelf, forced by Met Office Hadley Centre climate model winds, for various future climate scenarios. The wave model (WAM) has been well-validated previously and here it is shown to be statistically in reasonable agreement with the ERA-40 reanalysis for present-day climate. Seasonal mean and extreme waves are generally expected to increase to the south-west of the UK, reduce to the north of the UK and experience little change in the southern North Sea. There are large uncertainties especially with the projected extreme values, so that although an upward trend in wave height is predicted, it may not be statistically significant