A method for investigating the potential impacts of climate-change scenarios on annual minimum groundwater levels

Bloomfield, J.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5730-1723; Gaus, I.; Wade, S.D.. 2003 A method for investigating the potential impacts of climate-change scenarios on annual minimum groundwater levels. Water and Environment Journal, 17 (2). 86-91. 10.1111/j.1747-6593.2003.tb00439.x

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Abstract/Summary

Previous approaches to assessing the impact of climate-change scenarios on groundwater levels and groundwater droughts have focused on modelling specific recharge processes or phenomena. However, statistical methods, based on correlations between historic groundwater level and rainfall time-series, provide an alternative and robust approach to predicting minimum groundwater levels and droughts. For the purposes of this study, groundwater droughts are defined in terms of the return period of a given groundwater level. A multiple linear regression model (regression of monthly rainfall totals for a given period against values of minimum annual groundwater levels for the same period), when used with synthetic rainfall data based on climate-change scenarios, enables changes in future annual groundwater-level minima to be modelled. The method is illustrated at three sites on the Chalk, Permo-Triassic sandstone and Jurassic limestone aquifers.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1111/j.1747-6593.2003.tb00439.x
Programmes:	BGS Programmes > Groundwater Management
ISSN:	1747-6585
Additional Keywords:	GroundwaterBGS, Groundwater, Aquifer characterisation, Major aquifer
NORA Subject Terms:	Hydrology
Related URLs:	http://www.bgs.ac.uk/research/groundwate...
Date made live:	22 Jul 2009 12:35 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/7755

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