“Blind” testing of models for predicting the 90Sr activity concentration in river systems using post-Chernobyl monitoring data

Sasina, N. V.; Smith, J. T.; Kudelsky, A. V.; Wright, S. M.. 2007 “Blind” testing of models for predicting the 90Sr activity concentration in river systems using post-Chernobyl monitoring data. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 92 (2). 63-71. 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2006.09.007

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2006.09.007

Abstract/Summary

Two different models for predicting the time-dependent mobility of 90Sr in river systems have been evaluated using post-Chernobyl monitoring data for five large Belarusian rivers (Dnieper, Pripyat, Sozh, Besed and Iput) in the period between 1990 and 2004. The results of model predictions are shown to be in good agreement (within a factor of 5) with the measurements of 90Sr activity concentration in river waters over a long period of time after the accident. This verifies the relatively good accuracy of the generalised input parameters of these models which were derived primarily from measurements of 90Sr deposited after atmospheric nuclear weapons testing (NWT). For the cases studied here, the simpler AQUASCOPE model performed just as well as the more complex “Global” model which used GIS-based catchment data as an input. The reasons for this are discussed. Exponential decay equations were also curve-fitted to the data for each river to help assess the uncertainties in the predictive models.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1016/j.jenvrad.2006.09.007
Programmes:	CEH Programmes pre-2009 publications > Biogeochemistry > SE01B Sustainable Monitoring, Risk Assessment and Management of Chemicals
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Shore Watkins (to March 2011) Acreman
ISSN:	0265-931X
Format Availability:	Electronic, Print
Additional Keywords:	90Sr, Model, Chernobyl, River, Pripyat, Weapons testing, Catchment, Runoff
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Hydrology
Date made live:	16 Jul 2007 13:49 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/606

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1016/j.jenvrad.2006.09.007

Programmes:

CEH Programmes pre-2009 publications > Biogeochemistry > SE01B Sustainable Monitoring, Risk Assessment and Management of Chemicals

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Shore
Watkins (to March 2011)
Acreman

ISSN:

0265-931X

Format Availability:

Electronic, Print