Antarctica InSync Scientific Theme 2. Rapid sea ice decline and its causes and consequences [White Paper]

Since 2015, Antarctic sea ice has entered a period of persistent record-low extent after decades of strong regional variability and large swings. The speed and persistence of this decline point to a system that may be changing state, with implications for the Southern Ocean, Antarctic ecosystems, and the global climate system. What is driving this shift remains insufficiently understood. Atmospheric variability plays a role, but ocean processes, including subsurface heat release and changes in stratification, are increasingly recognized as key pieces of the puzzle, alongside feedbacks involving snow, ice shelves, clouds, and freshwater input. This white paper focuses on four areas where progress is needed. First, improved understanding is needed of sea ice mass balance and dynamics: how sea ice grows, melts, moves, and deforms. Second, exchanges of heat, mass, and momentum between ocean, atmosphere, sea ice, and ice shelves need to be quantified across seasons and regions. Third, the consequences for ecosystems and biogeochemistry are likely substantial. Sea ice supports productive microbial communities and carbon and nutrient cycling, so its decline will affect polar food webs and Southern Ocean carbon storage. Finally, climate feedbacks, from albedo changes to cloud and ocean interactions, remain poorly constrained but could amplify ongoing change. A recurring limitation is the lack of coordinated, year-round observations across Antarctica. Existing data are sparse and uneven in space and time. Antarctica InSync is designed to address this by bringing together satellite observations, autonomous platforms, field campaigns, coastal observatories, harmonized data products, and modelling across pack ice, the marginal ice zone, landfast ice, and polynyas. The white paper recommends standardized observations of essential sea ice, snow, ocean, atmospheric, ecosystem, and biogeochemical variables, integrated into interoperable data products and models. Addressing these gaps is essential to improve predictability and anticipate future Antarctic sea ice change.