Performance of a dust forecast system during the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Doha, Qatar

Frequent dust storms in the Middle East cause major health and economic impacts. The Qatar Meteorology Department (QMD), Doha, in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and the Integrated Land Ecosystem-Atmosphere Processes Study (iLEAPS) developed a dust forecast system in experimental mode to provide dust forecasts during the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Doha, Qatar. This system provided PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm) forecasts up to 3 days in advance from November–December 2022. It satisfactorily captured a dust storm on 9 November 2022 with observed and forecasted peaks of PM10 at ∼1,600 μg/m3 and ∼1,200 μg/m3, respectively. While the system exhibited reasonable performance (Mean Fractional Bias (MFB): −0.02, Mean Fractional Error: 0.71, Root Mean Square Error: 198 μg/m3, Normalized Mean Bias: 15%), occasional false alarms were noted. The analysis of false alarm events revealed that the combined effect of wind speed overestimation and uncertainties in the dust source representation over the broader Doha region, including northwestern Qatar, appears to be the primary cause of these false alarm events. Diagnostic sensitivity experiments over this region suggested that a 50% reduction in the erodibility reduced false alarms and closely matched the true dust storm event. The findings emphasize the need for higher resolution modeling, improved region specific dust source data set, and refined surface physics representation to enhance operational dust forecast reliability over the Middle East.