Future material demand and secondary supply potential for UK net zero technologies

This study provides the first integrated assessment of the UK’s future demand for key technology metals and the potential contribution of end-of-life (EoL) materials to domestic supply across electric vehicle (EV) traction motors and lithium-ion batteries (LIB), wind turbines and solar photovoltaics (PV). It identifies when secondary materials could meaningfully reduce import dependence and the actions required to build a resilient national supply chain.
Key Findings:
• UK demand for critical technology metals, especially copper (Cu), graphite (C), lithium (Li), nickel (Ni), cobalt (Co), manganese (Mn) and rare earth elements (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb), rises sharply to 2040 due to rapid deployment of low carbon technologies.
• EoL material availability remains limited until the 2040s. Significant secondary flows emerge only once EV traction motors, EV batteries, wind turbines and PV modules begin reaching EoL.
• By 2050, EoL material availability (before recovery) could meet:
o 60 to 75% of UK demand for major battery metals
o 85 to 97% for Nd, Pr and Dy from EV traction motors and wind turbines
o A substantial share of silver (Ag) and tin (Sn) demand in the PV sector
• Based on the modelling outcomes and the state of industrial capabilities under development, the most significant opportunities for establishing circular value chains, initially focused on recycling, are in permanent magnets (from EVs and wind turbines), EV batteries, and copper.
• The UK’s 2035 target to meet 20% of critical mineral demand through recycling is unlikely to be met for most materials, due to low EoL volumes.
• Primary supply will remain essential through to 2050 as growth in EVs, wind turbines and batteries outpace the availability of secondary materials.
Implications for UK Resilience:
• The UK currently has limited recycling and processing capability. Significant quantities of high value materials, including REE magnets, battery black mass and Cu scrap, are exported overseas or lost through low grade recycling.
• Without coordinated development of domestic reverse supply chain infrastructure, the UK risks missing opportunities to retain critical materials as EoL flows expand after 2040.
Future Work:
• Develop domestic reverse supply chain infrastructure, including collection systems, dismantling, pre –processing and disassembly capacity.
• Technological advancements in product design in enabling secondary supply. Design choices that prioritise modularity, disassembly and material transparency can significantly improve the recoverability, purity and economic viability of recycling technology metals at end‑of‑life.
• Expand UK metallurgical capabilities, such as refining of Li, Co, Ni, Cu, and REE separation and magnet to magnet recycling, which are currently limited or only at pilot scale.
• Support the establishment of regional recovery hubs and integrated value chains to retain economic value that is currently lost through overseas export
• Consider regulatory reforms that ensure end‑of‑life stocks remain within the UK and that existing barriers to treating waste as a resource are reviewed and, where appropriate, removed. Such changes would be critical to enabling the development of domestic secondary supply chains for technology metals.
• Address workforce shortages in reverse engineering, metallurgy and materials processing, which are identified as barriers to scaling secondary supply.
• Improve data availability and modelling through systematic data collection, improved transparency and regular updates to material intensity and lifetime assumptions.
Strategic Implication:
Secondary materials could materially improve UK supply security from the 2040s onward, provided the UK develops the capability and infrastructure required to capture them. Until then, the UK will remain reliant on primary imports through the 2020s to 2030s.