Biodiversity science and policy need more model intercomparisons

Halting the accelerating decline of global biodiversity requires robust models to project future changes and inform policy decisions. Climate models, especially model intercomparison projects, were pivotal for advancing the mechanistic understanding of climate change attributing to anthropogenic causes. Analogous biodiversity model intercomparison projects (BMIPs), developed only in the past decade, could emulate this success. In this Perspective, we briefly summarize existing BMIPs and highlight the opportunities, gaps and challenges for developing BMIPs by applying lessons learned from the climate model intercomparison projects. BMIPs offer valuable insights into potential global and regional biodiversity trajectories and their uncertainty and can help to attribute changes in biodiversity to drivers when based on standardized, historical benchmark data. Moving forward, BMIPs should adopt mechanistic approaches, establish governance structures and ensure open access to modelling tools and data. With strategic investments in data infrastructure, modelling capabilities and global governance, BMIPs can meaningfully contribute to the delivery of the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by providing robust projections that support policy and action planning across various spatial scales and scenarios. Achieving this vision requires concerted international coordination, increased funding and proactive knowledge sharing.