Climate change-driven geographical shifts in Aspergillus species habitat and the implications for plant and human health

Aspergillus species cause severe infections and are widespread environmental saprotrophs. Climate change is expected to alter the ecological niches and spread of fungal pathogens. Here, we use a global metabarcoding dataset and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling to predict the current and future environmental suitability of three pathogenic Aspergilli : A. fumigatus sensu lato, A. flavus sensu lato, and A. niger sensu lato. We show that suitability of A. fumigatus is higher in temperate climates, while A. flavus and A. niger are more suitable in warmer regions. Future climate scenarios suggest a northward shifts of habitat suitability for all three species, particularly under severe warming. We combine our MaxEnt model with spatial models of crop growing areas and human population and show that geographical shift will occur on Aspergillus species along different climate scenarios. These predictions can guide experimental validation efforts and provide a base model for further refinement for other pathogenic fungi.