Radchuk, Viktoriia 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3072-0095; Jones, Carys V.; McLean, Nina ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7468-9515; Charmantier, Anne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0691-2647; Teplitsky, Céline; Alisauskas, Ray ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1983-020X; Ancona, Sergio ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4595-1953; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Arcese, Peter ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8097-482X; Arlt, Debora ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0874-4250; Aubry, Lise M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3318-7329; Bailey, Liam; Barbraud, Christophe; Berg, Karl S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3648-2991; Berteaux, Dominique ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2728-5985; Blumstein, Daniel T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5793-9244; Bouwhuis, Sandra ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4023-1578; Brose, Ulrich ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9156-583X; Brouwer, Lyanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6728-4851; Catry, Paulo ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3000-0522; Chero, Guillaume; Chiaradia, Andre ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6178-4211; Courtiol, Alexandre ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0637-2959; Daunt, Francis ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4638-3388; Delord, Karine; Dobson, F. Stephen ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5562-6316; Drummond, Hugh; Eeva, Tapio ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0395-1536; Fauteux, Dominique ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5373-8701; Gauthier, Gilles ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2624-3508; Genovart, Meritxell ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2919-1288; Granadeiro, José P.; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3201-9262; Harris, Michael ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9559-5830; Igual, José Manuel ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8369-3150; Janzen, Fredric ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5919-196X; Keogan, Katharine; Korpimäki, Erkki; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9269-4446; Kruuk, Loeske E.B.; Lewis, Susan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3511-2259; Mallory, Mark ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2744-3437; Martin, Julien ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7726-6809; Massot, Manuel ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2762-4417; Matthysen, Erik ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7521-9248; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5354-850X; Møller, Anders Pape ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3739-4675; Nater, Chloé R.; Newell, Mark ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8875-2642; Oppel, Steffen ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8220-3789; Oro, Daniel ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4782-3007; Ortega, Santiago ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3518-276X; Parejo, Deseada; Pärt, Tomas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7388-6672; Payo-Payo, Ana; Pemberton, Josephine ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0075-1504; Phillips, Richard A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0208-1444; Pillay, Neville ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0778-726X; Avilés, Jesús M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1463-8393; Rödel, Heiko G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0228-2884; Sanz-Aguilar, Ana ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4177-9749; Saraux, Claire; Schielzeth, Holger ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9124-2261; Schradin, Carsten; Schroeder, Julia; Sheldon, Ben C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5240-7828; Tavecchia, Giacomo ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5435-2691; Tarwater, Corey E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7203-1170; Veiberg, Vebjørn ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1037-5183; Viblanc, Vincent A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4953-659X; von Holst, Dietrich; Vriend, Stefan J.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9006-5988; Wanless, Sarah ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2788-4606; Wheelwright, Nathaniel; Wood, Andrew G.; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Jenouvrier, Stephanie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3324-2383; Clobert, Jean; Beissinger, Steven R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1323-2727; Visser, Marcel E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1456-1939; Reed, Thomas E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2993-0477; van de Pol, Martijn ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4102-4079.
2026
Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally.
Nature Communications, 17, 479.
14, pp.
10.1038/s41467-025-68172-8
Phenotypic responses to climate affect individual fitness, but the extent to which this translates into effects on population dynamics remains poorly understood. We assemble 213 time series on phenotypes and population sizes of wild vertebrates globally and match them with local climate data. Our meta-analysis shows that morphological traits are mostly climate insensitive. However, phenology is earlier in warmer-than-average years, which contributes positively to population growth in most species. At lower latitudes, temperature has weaker effects on phenology but stronger direct negative effects on population growth, likely because these populations are less capable of tracking climate via plasticity. Variation in the phenology-mediated effect of temperature on population growth cannot be explained by latitude, generation time, migratory mode, or diet. This suggests that simple relationships between species characteristics and population responses to warming may not occur in nature. Instead, we may need to embrace ecological complexity by considering local-scale predictors that capture intra-specific variation.
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.
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BAS Programmes 2015 > Ecosystems
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