Water scarcity in eastern Scotland: groundwater pathways to a drought-resilient future

Groundwater levels across eastern Scotland in 2025 are at the lowest levels in over a decade due to below average precipitation in winter and an abnormally warm dry spring. • Lower groundwater levels can impact the performance of shallow wells and spring flows, with deeper boreholes generally less affected. • Groundwater is the dominant source of river baseflow in the summer and primary source of water for more than 15,000 private supplies in Scotland, especially in the Northeast region. • Groundwater is recharged primarily in winter; therefore summer levels can generally be forecast by late spring to help inform decision-makers on interventions. • Groundwater can be a more resilient source of water during times of water scarcity, but increased groundwater abstraction can impact baseflow to rivers and affect other users and thus requires careful monitoring and management. • Groundwater modelling can provide insight on the impacts of drought and abstraction under future climate scenarios but will require sustained support through monitoring data and additional research to refine conceptual and parameter inputs into the models. • Updates to Scotland’s National Water Scarcity Plan should aim to more fully incorporate the role of groundwater in managing water scarcity.