Habitat suitability mapping for grassland species: using propagule source and grazing activity to predict colonization of restored habitat patches in a historical landscape

•Introduction: The recovery of habitats following restoration requires that suitable environmental conditions, propagule sources, and adequate active management all co-occur. Identifying the extent to which these different factors co-exist can support post-restoration actions and pinpoint possible locations for colonization by plant species at a landscape scale. We studied a 400 ha landscape undergoing restoration to identify the suitable habitats for the establishment of grassland communities. •Methods: We combined environmental data for variables which are key for plant species occurrence (vegetation structure, soil moisture,slope range, cover of bedrock) with observational layers of connectivity (proximity to propagule source and livestock activity by using global positioning system collars in the landscape) to classify restored sites according to their potential to support establishment of grassland patches. Using 320 plant inventory plots (1 x 1 m) distributed over the area, we tested the relationship between suitability values from models and aspects of plant community composition. •Results: We found that plant community composition was best explained by the interactions between environmental conditions and the location of propagule source and livestock activity. Greater proximity to propagule sources and the activity of grazing animals increased the likelihood for grassland species to colonize. •Conclusions: Applying suitability maps by using spatial layers in restoration efforts can be a useful tool for locating candidate sites and plan-ning post-restoration management actions. It would allow prioritizing certain locations where restoration could be most effective, for instance by steering the grazing regime to enhance colonization of target species. •Implications for Practice: Spatial analysis that integrates environmental conditions, distance to propagule sources, and grazing activity can effectively predict locations where grassland species are most likely to colonize successfully. Restoration actions should begin by creating and managing small, highly suitable grassland habitats that serve as core areas for colonization. Once the target species establish in these core areas, restoration actions can gradually expand to less suitable areas. Grazing livestock is essential for successful grassland restoration, and its effectiveness can be enhanced through rotational grazing, strategically moving livestock from high to low-suitability areas to maximize seed dispersal and plant establishment.