ESD Ideas: climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters

Ritchie, Paul D.L.; Huntingford, Chris; Cox, Peter M.

ESD Ideas: climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters

Ritchie, Paul D.L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7649-2991; Huntingford, Chris ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5941-7770; Cox, Peter M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0679-2219. 2025 ESD Ideas: climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters. Earth System Dynamics, 16 (5). 1523-1526. 10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025

Abstract/Summary

Climate tipping points are not committed to occur automatically upon crossing critical thresholds in global warming, as is often assumed. Instead, it is possible to temporarily overshoot a threshold without causing tipping, provided the duration of the overshoot is short. In this Idea, we demonstrate that restricting the time over 1.5 °C would considerably reduce tipping point risks.

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Water and Climate Science (2025-)

ISSN:

2190-4987

Additional Information:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

NORA Subject Terms:

Ecology and Environment
Meteorology and Climatology