Ritchie, Paul D.L. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7649-2991; Huntingford, Chris ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5941-7770; Cox, Peter M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0679-2219.
2025
ESD Ideas: climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters.
Earth System Dynamics, 16 (5).
1523-1526.
10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025
Abstract
Climate tipping points are not committed to occur automatically upon crossing critical thresholds in global warming, as is often assumed. Instead, it is possible to temporarily overshoot a threshold without causing tipping, provided the duration of the overshoot is short. In this Idea, we demonstrate that restricting the time over 1.5 °C would considerably reduce tipping point risks.
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