Future climate projections in the global coastal ocean

Holt, Jason ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3298-8477; Katavouta, Anna ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1587-4996; Hopkins, Joanne; Amoudry, Laurent O.; Appendini, Christian M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6044-3351; Arneborg, Lars ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0248-8110; Arnold, Alex; Artioli, Yuri; Aucan, Jerome ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9883-0082; Berx, Barbara; Cagigal, Laura; De Dominicis, Michela ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0544-7939; Denamiel, Cléa ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5099-1143; Galli, Giovanni; Graham, Jennifer A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1950-5266; Jacobs, Zoe ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7348-0699; Jevrejeva, Svetlana ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9490-4665; Kamranzad, Bahareh ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8829-6007; Langlais, Clothilde ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6423-7678; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Lira-Loarca, Andrea ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2251-6684; Lyddon, Charlotte ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4254-3049; Mathis, Moritz; Melet, Angélique ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3888-8159; Méndez, Fernando; Muis, Sanne; Myers, Paul ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4514-2654; O’Donovan, Mairéad; Olbert, Agnieszka Indiana; Palmer, Matthew D.; Phillips, Lachlan; Polton, Jeff ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0131-5250; Buil, Mercedes Pozo; Robins, Peter; Ruju, Andrea; Schlaefer, Jodie A.; Senatore, Alfonso ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9716-3532; Siedlecki, Samantha; Tinker, Jonathan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3160-7000; Verri, Giorgia ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7561-618X; Vilibić, Ivica ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0753-5775; Wei, Xiaoyan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8407-6958; Pinardi, Nadia ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4765-0775. 2025 Future climate projections in the global coastal ocean. Progress in Oceanography, 235, 103497. 1, pp. 10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103497

Before downloading, please read NORA policies.

Preview

Text /© 2025 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). 1-s2.0-S0079661125000850-main.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (4MB) | Preview

Abstract/Summary

Resilient coastal communities and sustainable marine economies require actionable knowledge to plan for and adapt to emerging and potential future climate change, particularly in relation to ecosystem services and coastal hazards. Such knowledge necessarily draws heavily on coastal ocean modelling of future climate impacts, using a great diversity of both global and regional approaches to explore multiple societal challenges in coastal and shelf seas around the world. In this paper, we explore the challenges, solutions and benefits of developing a better coordinated and global approach to future climate impacts modelling of the coastal ocean, in the context of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development project Future Coastal Ocean Climates (FLAME; part of the CoastPredict programme). Particularly, we address the need for diverse modelling approaches to meet different societal challenges, how regions can be harmonised through clustering and typology approaches, and how coordination of experimental designs can promote a better understanding of uncertainties and regional responses. Improved harmonisation of future climate impact projections in the global coastal ocean would allow sectoral and cross-sectoral global scale risk assessments, improve process understanding and help build capacity in under-represented areas such as the global south and small island developing states. We conclude with a proposed framework for a Global Coastal Ocean Model Intercomparison Project.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103497
ISSN:	00796611
Additional Keywords:	Coastal seas, Climate downscaling, Climate impacts, Coastal ocean modelling, Marine ecosystems, Coastal hazards, Marine economy
Date made live:	30 Jun 2025 14:37 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539720

Actions (login required)

View Item

Document Downloads

More statistics for this item...