Annex 5: Natural system impacts of overshoot pathways

Hayman, Garry ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3825-4156; Huntingford, Chris ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5941-7770; Kelley, Douglas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1413-4969; Price, Jeff; Jevrejeva, Svetlana ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9490-4665; Jacobs, Zoe ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7348-0699; Popova, Katya; Findlay, Helen S.; Pritchard, Hamish ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2936-1734. 2024 Annex 5: Natural system impacts of overshoot pathways. Online, UK Government, 102pp. (Global consequences of climate overshoot pathways)

Before downloading, please read NORA policies.

Preview

Text (Open Access) global-consequences-of-climate-overshoot-pathways-annex-5.pdf - Published Version Available under License Open Government Licence v3. Download (9MB) | Preview

Abstract/Summary

•Executive Summary: This annex reviews the potential impacts of overshooting 1.5 °C on natural systems, with a particular focus on tipping points, high impact events and hysteresis in the climate and natural systems. It examines five parts of the Earth system: 1. Atmosphere: (i) changes in the West African and Indian monsoon; (ii) changes in the frequency and reversibility of extreme events (e.g. heatwaves, intense rainfall). 2. Ecosystems: (i) loss of boreal forests (fires and pests); (ii) loss of the Amazon and other Tropical Rainforests (fire and drought); (iii) greening of the Sahel; (iv) lock into dust-bowl conditions. 3. Biodiversity: (i) loss of biodiversity, including insects; (ii) changes in ranges, phenology, physiology and morphology of terrestrial and freshwater species. 4. Oceans and coastal regions: (i) collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC); (ii) cooling of the subpolar gyre; (iii) frequency and of intensity of ocean heatwaves; (iv) frequency and of intensity of ocean deoxygenation and hypoxic events; (v) change in the rate of ocean acidification; (vi) loss of coral reefs. 5. Cryosphere: committed loss to the ocean of the ice stored within (i) the Greenland Ice Sheet; (ii) Antarctic ice sheets; and (iii) mountain glaciers; (iv) loss of perennial Arctic Sea ice; (v) permafrost thaw.

Item Type:	Publication - Report (Technical Report)
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Water and Climate Science (2025-)
Funders/Sponsors:	UK Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (DESNZ)
NORA Subject Terms:	Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live:	23 May 2025 09:49 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539487

Actions (login required)

View Item

Document Downloads

More statistics for this item...