A UK foresight study of materials in decarbonisation technologies : the case of fuel cells

The UK Hydrogen Strategy highlights the critical role of hydrogen in the UK’s net zero transition (BEIS, 2021). Beyond this, the UK National Grid Future Energy Scenarios (FES) forecasts an annual increase in demand for hydrogen by society from currently close to zero to 446 TWh in 2050 in a ‘System transformation’ scenario, or 242 TWh in a ‘Leading the way’ scenario (National Grid, 2023a, b). Hydrogen can have many applications, including as an intermediate material for processing into other substances (including other energy carriers) or directly as an energy source. As an energy source, converting hydrogen into useful energy (heat or electricity) can occur via two main pathways: combustion to release heat or the use of fuel cells to generate electricity (Shell & Wuppertal Institut, 2017). This report explores the material supply chain for fuel cell deployment in the UK, concentrating on the road transport sector. The objective is to estimate future material demand for different hydrogen fuel cell vehicle development scenarios, as reflected in the National Grid FES (National Grid, 2023a, b). The focus on the road transportation sector is based on the expectation that fuel cell uptake will grow substantially in the near future (EC, 2020) and because suitable hydrogen vehicle data are readily available in the National Grid FES data (National Grid, 2023a, b), enabling material demand scenario analysis. While the overall future scale of fuel cell uptake is subject to significant uncertainty, growth is already taking place in the road transport sector in some countries. In other transportation sectors, such as rail, shipping and aviation, fuel cell technology remains mostly at an early prototype or demonstration project stage. Similarly, hydrogen use in building and for power generation currently plays only a negligible role (IEA, 2022a, 2023a).