Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot

Munday, Gregory ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4750-9923; Jones, Chris D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7141-9285; Steinert, Norman J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2154-5857; Mathison, Camilla ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6269-4605; Burke, Eleanor J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2158-141X; Smith, Chris ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633; Huntingford, Chris ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5941-7770; Varney, Rebecca M.; Wiltshire, Andy J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7307-173X. 2025 Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot. Nature Climate Change. 13, pp. 10.1038/s41558-025-02327-9

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Abstract/Summary

With global warming heading for 1.5 °C, understanding the risks of exceeding this threshold is increasingly urgent. Impacts on human and natural systems are expected to increase with further warming and some may be irreversible. Yet impacts under policy-relevant stabilization or overshoot pathways have not been well quantified. Here we report the risks of irreversible impacts on forest ecosystems, such as Amazon forest loss and high-latitude woody encroachment, under three scenarios that explore low levels of exceedance and overshoot beyond 1.5 °C. Long-term forest loss is mitigated by reducing global temperatures below 1.5 °C. The proximity of dieback risk thresholds to the bounds of the Paris Agreement global warming levels underscores the need for urgent action to mitigate climate change—and the risks of irreversible loss of an important ecosystem.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1038/s41558-025-02327-9
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Water and Climate Science (2025-)
ISSN:	1758-678X
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	climate and earth system modelling, climate-change mitigation, environmental health
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Meteorology and Climatology
Related URLs:	Dataset Dataset Dataset Dataset Code Code Code Code Code
Date made live:	20 May 2025 15:27 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539468

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