Optimizing the temperature sensitivity of the isoprene emission model MEGAN in different ecosystems using a Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo method
DiMaria, C.A. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6281-2993; Jones, D.B.A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1935-3725; Ferracci, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6647-993X; Bloom, A.A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1486-1499; Worden, H.M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5949-9307; Seco, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2078-9956; Vettikkat, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6808-5643; Yáñez‐Serrano, A.M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6408-5961; Guenther, A.B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6283-8288; Araujo, A.; Goldstein, A.H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4014-4896; Langford, Ben ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6968-5197; Cash, James; Harris, N.R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1256-3006; Brown, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4807-9056; Rinnan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7222-700X; Schobesberger, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5777-4897; Holst, T.; Mak, J.E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8241-5653.
2025
Optimizing the temperature sensitivity of the isoprene emission model MEGAN in different ecosystems using a Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 130 (5), e2025JG008806.
26, pp.
10.1029/2025JG008806
Preview |
Text
N539466JA.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (4MB) | Preview |
Abstract/Summary
Isoprene is a reactive hydrocarbon emitted to the atmosphere in large quantities by terrestrial vegetation. Annual total isoprene emissions exceed 300 Tg a−1, but emission rates vary widely among plant species and are sensitive to meteorological and environmental conditions including temperature, sunlight, and soil moisture. Due to its high reactivity, isoprene has a large impact on air quality and climate pollutants such as ozone and aerosols. It is also an important sink for the hydroxyl radical which impacts the lifetime of the important greenhouse gas methane along with many other trace gas species. Modeling the impacts of isoprene emissions on atmospheric chemistry and climate requires accurate isoprene emission estimates. These can be obtained using the empirical Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), but the parameterization of this model is uncertain due in part to limited field observations. In this study, we use ground-based measurements of isoprene concentrations and fluxes from 11 field sites to assess the variability of the isoprene emission temperature response across ecosystems. We then use these observations in a Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MHMCMC) data assimilation framework to optimize the MEGAN temperature response function. We find that the performance of MEGAN can be significantly improved at several high-latitude field sites by increasing the modeled sensitivity of isoprene emissions to past temperatures. At some sites, the optimized model was nearly four times more sensitive to temperature than the unoptimized model. This has implications for air quality modeling in a warming climate.
| Item Type: | Publication - Article |
|---|---|
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI): | 10.1029/2025JG008806 |
| UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas: | Land-Atmosphere Interactions (2025-) |
| ISSN: | 2169-8953 |
| Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: | Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link. |
| Additional Keywords: | isoprene, optimization model, observations, Monte Carlo, ecosystem |
| NORA Subject Terms: | Earth Sciences Ecology and Environment |
| Related URLs: | |
| Date made live: | 20 May 2025 14:57 +0 (UTC) |
| URI: | https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539466 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
Document Downloads
Downloads for past 30 days
Downloads per month over past year
Altmetric
Altmetric
