Daily rainfall variability controls humid heatwaves in the global tropics and subtropics

Jackson, Lawrence S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8143-2777; Birch, Cathryn E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9384-2810; Chagnaud, Guillaume; Marsham, John H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3219-8472; Taylor, Christopher M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0120-3198. 2025 Daily rainfall variability controls humid heatwaves in the global tropics and subtropics. Nature Communications, 16, 3461. 12, pp. 10.1038/s41467-025-58694-6

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58694-6

Abstract/Summary

Humid heatwaves are a growing risk to human and animal health, especially in tropical regions. While there is established research on dry-bulb temperature heatwaves, greater understanding of the meteorological drivers of extreme humid heat is urgently needed. In this study, we find that recent rainfall is a key control on the occurrence of humid heatwaves in the tropics and subtropics and its effect is regulated by the energy- or moisture-limited state of the land surface. In moisture-limited environments, heatwaves are likely during, or immediately after, enhanced rainfall. In energy-limited environments, heatwaves are likely after suppression of rainfall for two days or longer. The nature of the threat to health from heat stress varies by environment. It depends on local adaptation to temperature or humidity extremes, as well as vulnerability to absolute or anomalous extremes. Early warning systems, which reduce exposure and vulnerability to weather extremes, can benefit from this understanding of humid heatwave drivers, highlighting the possibility of predicting events using satellite-derived rainfall and surface moisture data.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1038/s41467-025-58694-6
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Water and Climate Science (2025-)
ISSN:	2041-1723
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	atmospheric science, natural hazards
NORA Subject Terms:	Meteorology and Climatology
Related URLs:	Dataset Dataset Dataset Code Code
Date made live:	08 May 2025 15:20 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539399

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1038/s41467-025-58694-6

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Water and Climate Science (2025-)

ISSN:

2041-1723

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

atmospheric science, natural hazards