Future projections of the hydrology of the Philippines : dataset summary

The ‘Future Projections of the Hydrology of the Philippines’ dataset consists of ensemble model outputs from the Philippine National Hydrological Model driven by UKCP18 climate change projections considering two relative greenhouse gas concentration pathways RCP2.6 and 8.5. Outputs from the model include: evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater recharge, surface runoff, river baseflow and groundwater levels. The dataset is available in two formats: gridded data as NetCDF files with a spatial resolution at 2 km, and a spreadsheet in which variables are aggregated to provincial level. The period for which the data are available is from 1980–2089 at a monthly time interval. The Philippine National Hydrological model uses a version of the macro-scale hydrological modelling software Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), into which a gridded groundwater model has been added so that it simulates the integrated surface water and groundwater system. The model has been constructed using openly available global datasets and calibrated against local observations, principally of river flows when driven by ERA5 historical climatology. To assess potential future change in the water resources of the Philippines, the Philippine National Hydrological Model was driven by two 15-member ensembles of the UKCP18 climate projections considering two relative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. This dataset provides a means to assess potential climate change impacts for different regions in the Philippines considering two contrasting future relative concentration pathways. The dataset provides an indication of the mean change in the hydrological cycle at a regional spatial scale. This user guide provides the information required to enable the reader to understand and use the dataset.