The role of local knowledge in enhancing climate change risk assessments in rural Northern Ireland

Kennedy-Asser, Alan T.; Andrews, Oliver D.; Montgomery, Jill; Jenkins, Katie L.; Smith, Ben A.H.; Lewis, Elizabeth; Birkinshaw, Stephen J.; He, Helen; Pywell, Richard F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6431-9959; Brown, Matt J.; Redhead, John W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2233-3848; Warren, Rachel; Robson, Craig; Smith, Adam J.P.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Mullan, Donal; McGuire, Ryan. 2025 The role of local knowledge in enhancing climate change risk assessments in rural Northern Ireland. Climate Risk Management, 48, 100702. 15, pp. 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100702

Before downloading, please read NORA policies.

Preview

Text
N539214JA.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.
Download (5MB) | Preview

Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2025.100702

Abstract/Summary

Climate risk modelling provides valuable quantitative data on potential risks at different spatiotemporal scales, but it is essential that these models are evaluated appropriately. In some cases, it may be useful to merge quantitative datasets with qualitative data and local knowledge, to better inform and evaluate climate risk assessments. This interdisciplinary study maps climatic risks relating to health and agriculture that are facing rural Northern Ireland. A large range of quantitative national climate risk modelling results from the OpenCLIM project are scrutinised using local qualitative insights identified during workshops and interviews with farmers and rural care providers. In some cases, the qualitative local knowledge supported the quantitative modelling results, such as (1) highlighting that heat risk can be an issue for health in rural areas as well as urban centres, and (2) precipitation is changing, with increased variability posing challenges to agriculture. In other cases, the local knowledge challenged the national quantitative results. For example, models suggested that (1) potential heat stress impacts will be low, and (2) grass growing conditions will be more favourable, with higher yields as a result of future climatic conditions. In both cases, local knowledge challenged these conclusions, with discomfort and workplace heat stress reported by care staff and recent experience of variable weather having significant impacts on grass growth on farms across the country. Hence, merging even a small amount of qualitative local knowledge with quantitative national modelling projects results in a more holistic understanding of the local climate risk.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1016/j.crm.2025.100702
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Biodiversity and Land Use (2025-) National Capability and Digital Research (2025-)
ISSN:	2212-0963
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	climate change, risk, local knowledge, Northern Ireland, rural
NORA Subject Terms:	Meteorology and Climatology Data and Information
Related URLs:	Code
Date made live:	04 Apr 2025 11:48 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539214

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1016/j.crm.2025.100702

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Biodiversity and Land Use (2025-)
National Capability and Digital Research (2025-)

ISSN:

2212-0963

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

climate change, risk, local knowledge, Northern Ireland, rural