Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C minimises projected global increases in fire weather days, but adaptation to new fire regimes is still needed

Taylor, Inika; Kelley, Douglas I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1413-4969; Mathison, Camilla ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6269-4605; Williams, Karina E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1185-535X; Hartley, Andrew J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1905-9112; Betts, Richard A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4929-0307; Burton, Chantelle ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0201-5727. 2025 Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C minimises projected global increases in fire weather days, but adaptation to new fire regimes is still needed. EGUsphere, egusphere-2025-720. 10.5194/egusphere-2025-720

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Abstract/Summary

Understanding future shifts in fire weather risk, including peak season, transitional and off-season, will be crucial for reshaping fire preparation and management in order to adapt to climate change. This study explores future climate-driven projections of fire weather using the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) across three Global Warming Levels (GWLs) with two future emissions scenarios – 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, and 4.0 °C under RCP8.5. Using a large, perturbed physics ensemble, we assess uncertainty in fire weather projections globally and for three regions: Australia, Brazil, and the USA. In addition to season length and peak FFDI, we evaluate transitions in meteorological fire danger periods and shifts in low-fire weather windows to inform fire management throughout the annual cycle. We project a global rise in fire weather days and severity at all GWLs, with the largest increases in Australia, followed by Brazil and the USA. At 1.5 °C, the area exposed to Very High fire weather (FFDI ≥ 24) expands by 31 % (25 %–36 %) relative to a baseline of 1986–2005. Higher GWLs drive further increases, with more than a threefold rise in Very High fire weather days from 2.0 °C to 4.0 °C, emphasising the mitigation benefits of limiting global warming to well below 2.0 °C as intended by the Paris Agreement. The transition from High to Very High, a proxy for the start of the fire season, advances, by 9–12 days in Australia, 16–22 days in Brazil, and 8–24 days in the USA. Despite these changes, low-fire windows persist, providing crucial opportunities for out-of-season preparation such as controlled burns. Our findings highlight the need for both emissions reductions and adaptive strategies, including accounting for changes in out-of-season fire risks when employing management techniques that rely on pre-fire season preparations.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.5194/egusphere-2025-720
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Water and Climate Science (2025-)
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live:	28 Mar 2025 09:01 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539172

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