End user and forecaster interpretations of the European Avalanche Danger Scale: a study of avalanche probability judgments in Scotland

Ebert, Philip A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3730-0600; Miller, David L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9640-6755; Comerford, David A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2611-9504; Diggins, Mark. 2025 End user and forecaster interpretations of the European Avalanche Danger Scale: a study of avalanche probability judgments in Scotland. Risk Analysis. 10.1111/risa.70016

Before downloading, please read NORA policies.

Preview

Text Risk Analysis - 2025 - Ebert - End user and forecaster interpretations of the European Avalanche Danger Scale A study of.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract/Summary

We investigate Scottish end users' and professional forecasters' risk perception in relation to the 5‐point European Avalanche Danger Scale by eliciting numerical estimates of the probability of triggering an avalanche. Our main findings are that neither end users nor professional forecasters interpret the avalanche danger scale as intended, that is, in an exponential fashion. Second, we find that numerical interpretations by end users and professional forecasters have high variance, but are similar, in that both groups tend to overestimate the probability of triggering an avalanche and underestimate the relative risk increase. Finally, we find significant differences in the perceived probability of triggering an avalanche relative to a low or moderate avalanche danger level, and in the numerical interpretation of verbal probability terms depending on whether respondents provide their estimates using a frequency or a percentage chance format. We summarize our findings by identifying important lessons to improve avalanche risk understanding and its communication.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1111/risa.70016
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Biodiversity and Land Use (2025-)
ISSN:	0272-4332
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	avalanche risk communication, risk perception, verbal probability
NORA Subject Terms:	Glaciology Data and Information
Related URLs:	Other
Date made live:	18 Mar 2025 10:19 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539098

Actions (login required)

View Item

Document Downloads

More statistics for this item...