High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation

Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2892-518X; Tramblay, Yves ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0481-5330; Reig, Fergus ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9482-1170; González-Hidalgo, José C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8518-9177; Beguería, Santiago; Brunetti, Michele ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3487-2221; Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3676-3021; Patalen, Leonardo; Kržič, Aleksandra; Lionello, Piero ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0779-5681; Lima, Miguel M.; Trigo, Ricardo M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4183-9852; El-Kenawy, Ahmed M.; Eddenjal, Ali; Türkes, Murat ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9637-4044; Koutroulis, Aristeidis ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2999-7575; Manara, Veronica; Maugeri, Maurizio; Badi, Wafae; Mathbout, Shifa ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3398-2341; Bertalanič, Renato; Bocheva, Lilia; Dabanli, Ismail ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3108-8167; Dumitrescu, Alexandru ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3361-483X; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Sahabi-Abed, Salah; Abdulla, Fayez; Fayad, Abbas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0685-9572; Hodzic, Sabina; Ivanov, Mirjana; Radevski, Ivan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4408-4691; Peña-Angulo, Dhais; Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7582-1776; Domínguez-Castro, Fernando ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3085-7040; Gimeno-Sotelo, Luis; García-Herrera, Ricardo ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3845-7458; Franquesa, Magí ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3101-0394; Halifa-Marín, Amar ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2388-1598; Adell-Michavila, Maria ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-6293-1994; Noguera, Iván ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0696-9504; Barriopedro, David; Garrido-Perez, Jose M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5071-789X; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Andres-Martin, Miguel; Gimeno, Luis; Nieto, Raquel; Llasat, Maria Carmen ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8720-4193; Markonis, Yannis ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0144-8969; Selmi, Rabeb; Ben Rached, Soumaya; Radovanović, Slavica; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Ribes, Aurélien ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5102-7885; Saidi, Mohamed Elmehdi ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8949-2547; Bataineh, Siham; El Khalki, El Mahdi; Robaa, Sayed; Boucetta, Amina; Alsafadi, Karam ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8925-7918; Mamassis, Nikos; Mohammed, Safwan; Fernández-Duque, Beatriz; Cheval, Sorin; Moutia, Sara; Stevkov, Aleksandra; Stevkova, Silvana; Luna, M. Yolanda ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3470-9670; Potopová, Vera ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2723-0397. 2025 High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation. Nature, 639 (8055). 658-666. 10.1038/s41586-024-08576-6

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Abstract/Summary

State-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anthropogenic influences. Conversely, certain researchers have underlined that Mediterranean precipitation exhibits considerable spatiotemporal variability driven by atmospheric circulation patterns maintaining stationarity over the long term. These conflicting perspectives underscore the need for a comprehensive assessment of precipitation changes in this region, given the profound social, economic and environmental implications. Here we show that Mediterranean precipitation has largely remained stationary from 1871 to 2020, albeit with significant multi-decadal and interannual variability. This conclusion is based on the most comprehensive dataset available for the region, encompassing over 23,000 stations across 27 countries. While trends can be identified for some periods and subregions, our findings attribute these trends primarily to atmospheric dynamics, which would be mostly linked to internal variability. Furthermore, our assessment reconciles the observed precipitation trends with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations, neither of which indicate a prevailing past precipitation trend in the region. The implications of our results extend to environmental, agricultural and water resources planning in one of the world’s prominent climate change hotspots. Similar cont

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1038/s41586-024-08576-6
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Water and Climate Science (2025-)
ISSN:	0028-0836
Additional Information:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	atmospheric dynamics, attribution
NORA Subject Terms:	Meteorology and Climatology Data and Information
Related URLs:	Dataset Other
Date made live:	18 Mar 2025 09:31 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539097

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