High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation
Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2892-518X; Tramblay, Yves
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0481-5330; Reig, Fergus
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9482-1170; González-Hidalgo, José C.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8518-9177; Beguería, Santiago; Brunetti, Michele
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3487-2221; Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3676-3021; Patalen, Leonardo; Kržič, Aleksandra; Lionello, Piero
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0779-5681; Lima, Miguel M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4183-9852; El-Kenawy, Ahmed M.; Eddenjal, Ali; Türkes, Murat
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9637-4044; Koutroulis, Aristeidis
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2999-7575; Manara, Veronica; Maugeri, Maurizio; Badi, Wafae; Mathbout, Shifa
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3398-2341; Bertalanič, Renato; Bocheva, Lilia; Dabanli, Ismail
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3108-8167; Dumitrescu, Alexandru
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3361-483X; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Sahabi-Abed, Salah; Abdulla, Fayez; Fayad, Abbas
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0685-9572; Hodzic, Sabina; Ivanov, Mirjana; Radevski, Ivan
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4408-4691; Peña-Angulo, Dhais; Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7582-1776; Domínguez-Castro, Fernando
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3085-7040; Gimeno-Sotelo, Luis; García-Herrera, Ricardo
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3845-7458; Franquesa, Magí
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3101-0394; Halifa-Marín, Amar
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2388-1598; Adell-Michavila, Maria
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-6293-1994; Noguera, Iván
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0696-9504; Barriopedro, David; Garrido-Perez, Jose M.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5071-789X; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Andres-Martin, Miguel; Gimeno, Luis; Nieto, Raquel; Llasat, Maria Carmen
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8720-4193; Markonis, Yannis
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0144-8969; Selmi, Rabeb; Ben Rached, Soumaya; Radovanović, Slavica; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Ribes, Aurélien
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5102-7885; Saidi, Mohamed Elmehdi
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8949-2547; Bataineh, Siham; El Khalki, El Mahdi; Robaa, Sayed; Boucetta, Amina; Alsafadi, Karam
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8925-7918; Mamassis, Nikos; Mohammed, Safwan; Fernández-Duque, Beatriz; Cheval, Sorin; Moutia, Sara; Stevkov, Aleksandra; Stevkova, Silvana; Luna, M. Yolanda
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3470-9670; Potopová, Vera
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2723-0397.
2025
High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation.
Nature.
10.1038/s41586-024-08576-6
Preview |
Text
s41586-024-08576-6.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives 4.0. Download (16MB) | Preview |
Abstract/Summary
State-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anthropogenic influences. Conversely, certain researchers have underlined that Mediterranean precipitation exhibits considerable spatiotemporal variability driven by atmospheric circulation patterns maintaining stationarity over the long term. These conflicting perspectives underscore the need for a comprehensive assessment of precipitation changes in this region, given the profound social, economic and environmental implications. Here we show that Mediterranean precipitation has largely remained stationary from 1871 to 2020, albeit with significant multi-decadal and interannual variability. This conclusion is based on the most comprehensive dataset available for the region, encompassing over 23,000 stations across 27 countries. While trends can be identified for some periods and subregions, our findings attribute these trends primarily to atmospheric dynamics, which would be mostly linked to internal variability. Furthermore, our assessment reconciles the observed precipitation trends with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations, neither of which indicate a prevailing past precipitation trend in the region. The implications of our results extend to environmental, agricultural and water resources planning in one of the world’s prominent climate change hotspots. Similar cont
Item Type: | Publication - Article |
---|---|
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): | 10.1038/s41586-024-08576-6 |
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas: | Water and Climate Science (2025-) |
ISSN: | 0028-0836 |
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: | Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link. |
Additional Keywords: | atmospheric dynamics, attribution |
NORA Subject Terms: | Meteorology and Climatology Data and Information |
Related URLs: | |
Date made live: | 18 Mar 2025 09:31 +0 (UTC) |
URI: | https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539097 |
Actions (login required)
![]() |
View Item |
Document Downloads
Downloads for past 30 days
Downloads per month over past year