Very high fire danger in UK in 2022 at least 6 times more likely due to human-caused climate change

Burton, Chantelle ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0201-5727; Ciavarella, Andrew ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8581-422X; Kelley, Douglas I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1413-4969; Hartley, Andrew J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1905-9112; McCarthy, Mark ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2692-1417; New, Stacey ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7992-2179; Betts, Richard A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4929-0307; Robertson, Eddy. 2025 Very high fire danger in UK in 2022 at least 6 times more likely due to human-caused climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 20 (4), 044003. 11, pp. 10.1088/1748-9326/adb764

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Abstract/Summary

The UK experienced an unprecedented heatwave in 2022, with temperatures reaching 40 °C for the first time in recorded history. This extreme heat was accompanied by widespread fires across London and elsewhere in England, which destroyed houses and prompted evacuations. While attribution studies have identified a strong human fingerprint contributing to the heatwave, no studies have attributed the associated fires to anthropogenic influence. In this study, we assess the contribution of human-induced climate change to fire weather conditions over the summer of 2022 using simulations from the HadGEM3-A model with and without anthropogenic emissions and apply the Canadian Fire Weather Index. Our analysis reveals at least a 6-fold increase in the probability of very high fire weather in the UK due to human influence, most of which is driven by high fire conditions across England. These findings highlight the significant role of human-induced climate change in emerging UK wildfires. As we experience more hotter and drier summers as temperatures continue to rise the frequency and severity of fires are likely to increase, posing significant risks to both natural ecosystems and human populations. This study underscores the need for further research to quantify the changing fire risk due to our changing climate and the urgent requirement for mitigation and adaptation efforts to address the growing wildfire threat in the UK.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1088/1748-9326/adb764
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Water and Climate Science (2025-)
ISSN:	1748-9326
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	attribution, fire, climate change
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live:	14 Mar 2025 15:39 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539089

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