The influence of subglacial lake discharge on Thwaites Glacier ice-shelf melting and grounding-line retreat

The retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is conventionally attributed to increased ocean melting of ice shelves, potentially enhanced by internal instability from grounding lines near retrograde bed slopes. Ocean melting is enhanced by increased intrusion of modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) into ice shelf cavities. Upwelling from the release of subglacial meltwater can enhance mCDW’s melting ability, though its efficacy is not well understood and is not represented in current ice sheet loss projections. Here we quantify this process during an exceptional subglacial lake drainage event under Thwaites Glacier. We found that the buoyant plume from the subglacial discharge temporarily doubled the rate of ocean melting under Thwaites, thinning the ice shelf. These events likely contributed to Thwaites’ rapid thinning and grounding line retreat during that period. However, simulations and observations indicate that a steady subglacial water release would more efficiently enhance basal melt rates at Thwaites, with melt rate increasing like the square root of the subglacial discharge. Thus, it remains unclear whether increased subglacial flooding events provide a stabilizing influence on West Antarctic ice loss by reducing the impact of subglacial water on ocean melting, or a destabilizing influence by triggering rapid changes at the grounding zone.