Incorporating adult age into mosquito population models: implications for predicting abundances in changing climates

Andrade, Renato ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2503-0989; White, Steven M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3192-9969; Cobbold, Christina A.. 2025 Incorporating adult age into mosquito population models: implications for predicting abundances in changing climates. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 112084. 10.1016/j.jtbi.2025.112084

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Abstract/Summary

Mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) pose increasing threats under future climate change scenarios and an understanding of mosquito population dynamics is pivotal to predicting future risk of MBDs. Most models that describe mosquito population dynamics often assume that adult life-history is independent of adult age and yet mosquito senescence is known to affect mosquito mortality, fecundity and other key biological traits. Despite this, little is known about the effects of adult age at the level of the mosquito population, especially under varying temperature scenarios. We develop a stage-structured delayed differential equations (DDEs) model incorporating the effects of the abiotic environment and adult age to shed light on the complex interactions between age, temperature, and mosquito population dynamics. Taking Culex pipiens, a major vector of West Nile Virus, as our study species our results show that failing to consider mosquito senescence can lead to underestimates of future mosquito abundances predicted under climate change scenarios. We also find that the age-dependent mechanisms combined with the effects of density-dependent mortality on the immature stages can result in mosquito abundances decreasing at extreme temperatures. With our work, we underscore the need for more studies to consider the effects of mosquito age. Not accounting for senescence can compromise the accuracy of abundance estimates and has implications for predicting the risk of future MBD outbreaks.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1016/j.jtbi.2025.112084
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Biodiversity and Land Use (2025-)
ISSN:	0022-5193
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	mosquito population dynamics, senescence, climate change, Culex pipiens, seasonality, stage-structured model
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Zoology Biology and Microbiology
Date made live:	10 Mar 2025 14:49 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539060

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