Predicting debris flow pathways using volume-based thresholds for effective risk assessment

Rajaneesh, A.; Krishnapriya, V.K.; Sajinkumar, K.S.; Nedumpallile Vasu, Nikhil; van Westen, Cees; Oommen, Thomas; Yunus, Ali P.; Banks, Vanessa; Pradeepkumar, A. P.. 2025 Predicting debris flow pathways using volume-based thresholds for effective risk assessment. npj Natural Hazards, 2, 1. 10.1038/s44304-024-00055-2

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Abstract/Summary

Investigating the preferential flow path of a debris flow is crucial for quantifying the risk and developing mitigation strategies. Here, we examined 66 debris flows from the Western Ghats in India employing Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS)::Debris Flow software to understand the kinematics of run-out. Our analysis revealed that the debris flow run-out in the study area follow two main routes: 60 along the existing stream channels (SC) and six following the steepest hill slope (SH). We further simulated these debris flows to identify their drivers, and derived a threshold that distinguishes between SC and SH-type debris flows. Our results indicate that the debris flow volumes greater than 7072 cu. m is SH-type, whereas those with smaller volumes are more likely to follow SC paths. The model’s accuracy was validated against field observations, achieving a success rate of 93% for SH-type flows and 85% for SC.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1038/s44304-024-00055-2
ISSN:	2948-2100
Additional Keywords:	IGRD
Date made live:	12 Mar 2025 14:26 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539037

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