Past and future effects of climate on the metapopulation dynamics of a Northeast Atlantic seabird across two centuries

Jeglinski, Jana W.E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7997-6756; Niven, Holly I.; Wanless, Sarah ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2788-4606; Barrett, Robert T.; Harris, Mike P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9559-5830; Dierschke, Jochen; Matthiopoulos, Jason ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3639-8172. 2024 Past and future effects of climate on the metapopulation dynamics of a Northeast Atlantic seabird across two centuries. Ecology Letters, 27 (12), e14479. 14, pp. 10.1111/ele.14479

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14479

Abstract/Summary

Forecasting population responses to rapidly changing marine ecosystems requires mechanistic models integrating complex demographic processes, fitted to long time series, across large spatial scales. We used a Bayesian metapopulation model fit to colony census data and climatic covariates spanning 1900–2100 for all Northeast Atlantic colonies of an exemplar seabird, the Northern gannet (Morus bassanus) to investigate metapopulation dynamics under two climate scenarios. Fecundity varied non‐linearly with near‐surface air temperature and recruitment was depressed by sea surface temperature. We predict regime changes in density dependence as marine carrying capacities become constrained with increasing SST. Sensitivity to climate change varied across space and time, disadvantaging southwestern colonies whilst benefitting northern ones. Such sensitivity is noteworthy for a species previously assumed robust to climate change. We provide a spatial overview of climate sensitivities across a metapopulation to help with evidence‐based conservation management and open the way for similar mechanistic explorations for other colonial species.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1111/ele.14479
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	UKCEH Fellows
ISSN:	1461-023X
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	Bayesian state-space models, climate change, climate forecasts, density dependence, mechanistic metapopulation models, Morus bassanus, near-surface air temperature, Northern gannet, regime shifts in population regulation, sensitivity to climate change
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment
Related URLs:	Dataset Dataset
Date made live:	06 Jan 2025 14:57 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/538631

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1111/ele.14479

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

UKCEH Fellows

ISSN:

1461-023X

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

Bayesian state-space models, climate change, climate forecasts, density dependence, mechanistic metapopulation models, Morus bassanus, near-surface air temperature, Northern gannet, regime shifts in population regulation, sensitivity to climate change

NORA Subject Terms:

Ecology and Environment

Related URLs:

Date made live:

06 Jan 2025 14:57 +0 (UTC)

URI:

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/538631