Mapping pancreatic cancer incidence and risk factors in England between 2013 and 2019 [Abstract]

Wrench, Elizabeth; O'Neil, Aneurin ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3591-1034; Subar, Daren; Bampouras, Theodoros M.; Lauder, Robert M.; Sedda, Luigi; Gaffney, Christopher J.. 2024 Mapping pancreatic cancer incidence and risk factors in England between 2013 and 2019 [Abstract] [in special issue: European Pancreatic Club 2024 Abstracts] Pancreatology, 24, supplement 1. e25-e25. 10.1016/j.pan.2024.05.058

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Abstract/Summary

•Background: 540 cases of pancreatic cancer in England are linked with deprivation each year and around 31% of cases are thought to result from modifiable risk factors that could be prevented (Cancer Research UK, 2020). This study aims to map and analyse Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) level data across England to identify areas at high risk and understand factors which might predict this risk. •Methods: Aggregated pancreatic cancer data was obtained from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis service based on 106 CCGs. Population statistics including population number, smoking prevalence, Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), alcohol-related prescription rates, ethnicity, type 2 diabetes, and age group were obtained from the Office of National Statistics and NHS Digital. Crude standardised incidence ratios (SIR) and age standardised rates were calculated and geographically mapped. A generalised linear model (GLM) was used to predict standardised pancreatic cancer cases in each CCG and determine significantly associated variables. The model was then used in an Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (R-INLA) analysis to map the relative risk of pancreatic cancer in each CCG based on significantly associated factors. •Results: A large number of coastal CCGs, with varying levels of deprivation, have an SIR significantly greater than 1. Therefore, in these areas, pancreatic cancer incidence is above the national average. When standardised for age, a one-unit increase for white ethnicity, living environment deprivation, and presence of type 2 diabetes were associated with a significantly higher pancreatic cancer risk per person (p<0.05). However, a one-unit increase in crime, and health deprivation and disability scores were associated with a significant decrease in pancreatic cancer risk (p<0.05). Income, employment, education, skills and training, barriers to housing and services, IMD average and smoking prevalence were not significantly associated with pancreatic cancer risk (p>0.05). •Conclusion: The most suitable model to predict standardised pancreatic cancer cases, based on CCG-level data and factors in England, combined white ethnicity, health, deprivation, and disability, crime, living environment, type 2 diabetes registrations, and alcohol-related prescriptions. Deprivation associated with living environment, and type 2 diabetes are potential factors interventions could target to reduce pancreatic cancer risk.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1016/j.pan.2024.05.058
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Soils and Land Use (Science Area 2017-24)
ISSN:	1424-3903
NORA Subject Terms:	Health
Related URLs:	Dataset
Date made live:	06 Jan 2025 08:58 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/538615

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