Meridional Wind in the Upper Stratosphere: A Source of Winter NAO Predictability

Collingwood, Elizabeth ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2959-7897; Scaife, Adam A.; Lu, Hua ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9485-5082; Sinha, Bablu; King, John ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3315-7568; Marsh, Robert; Marshall, Gareth ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8887-7314. 2024 Meridional Wind in the Upper Stratosphere: A Source of Winter NAO Predictability. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (24), e2024GL111717. 10.1029/2024GL111717

Before downloading, please read NORA policies.

Preview

Text (Open Access)
© 2024. The Author(s).
Geophysical Research Letters - 2024 - Collingwood - Meridional Wind in the Upper Stratosphere A Source of Winter NAO.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.
Download (1MB) | Preview

Official URL: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.102...

Abstract/Summary

Improvement of subseasonal to seasonal North Atlantic winter forecasting requires better prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Despite recent research demonstrating the importance of stratosphere-troposphere coupling for NAO predictability, the driving mechanisms and implications are not fully understood. This study reveals that the October upper stratosphere is highly relevant to polar vortex development and predictability of winter NAO. We derive a simple index based on the strength of meridional wind in the upper stratospheric surf zone and find that anomalously poleward motion is associated with a significantly stronger polar vortex, which predicts the subsequent winter surface NAO with a correlation coefficient of r = 0.40.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1029/2024GL111717
ISSN:	1944-8007
Additional Keywords:	NAO, stratosphere-troposphere coupling, subseasonal-to-seasonal
Date made live:	12 Dec 2024 11:11 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/538509

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1029/2024GL111717

ISSN:

1944-8007

Additional Keywords:

NAO, stratosphere-troposphere coupling, subseasonal-to-seasonal

Date made live:

12 Dec 2024 11:11 +0 (UTC)

URI:

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/538509