Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties

Murphy, Kieran; Arcos, Denisse Fierro; Rohr, Tyler; Green, David; Novaglio, Camilla; Baker, Katherine; Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly; Eddy, Tyler D.; Harrison, Cheryl S.; Hill, Simeon L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1441-8769; Eskuche-Keith, Patrick; Cataldo-Mendez, Camila; Petrik, Colleen M.; Pinkerton, Matthew; Spence, Paul; Stollberg, Ilaria; Subramaniam, Roshni C.; Trebilco, Rowan; Tulloch, Vivitskaia; Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano; Bestley, Sophie; Bianchi, Daniele; Boyd, Philip; Buchanan, Pearse J.; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Coll, Marta; Corney, Stuart; Datta, Samik; Everett, Jason D.; Forestier, Romain; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin Keith; Guibourd de Luzinais, Vianney; Heneghan, Ryan; Mason, Julia G.; Maury, Olivier; McMahon, Clive R.; Murphy, Eugene J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7369-9196; Richardson, Anthony J.; Tittensor, Derek P.; Spillias, Scott; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Veytia, Devi; Blanchard, Julia. 2025 Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties. Earth's Future, 13 (3), e2024EF004849. 25, pp. 10.1029/2024EF004849

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© 2025 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. Environmental Defence Fund and The Author(s). Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.
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Abstract/Summary

Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation and assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected changes in total consumer biomass from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain future for the Southern Ocean, indicating the need for a region-specific ensemble. A large source of model uncertainty originates from the Earth system models used to force FishMIP models, particularly future changes to lower trophic level biomass and sea-ice coverage. To build confidence in regional MEMs as ecosystem-based management tools in a changing climate that can better account for uncertainty, we propose the development of a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing to the FishMIP 2.0 regional model intercomparison initiative. One of the challenges hampering progress of regional MEM ensembles is achieving the balance of global standardised inputs with regional relevance. As a first step, we design a SOMEME simulation protocol, that builds on and extends the existing FishMIP framework, in stages that include: detailed skill assessment of climate forcing variables for Southern Ocean regions, extension of fishing forcing data to include whaling, and new simulations that assess ecological links to sea-ice processes in an ensemble of candidate regional MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments of urgently needed climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1029/2024EF004849
ISSN:	2328-4277
Date made live:	20 Mar 2025 17:22 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537460

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1029/2024EF004849

ISSN:

2328-4277

Date made live:

20 Mar 2025 17:22 +0 (UTC)

URI:

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537460