Estimating yield stability and predicting the response of sesame genotypes to climate change using the SALTMED model

Climate change (CC) could lead to many crises. Therefore, increasing the number of cultivated varieties represents a low-cost factor in confronting this problem. The effect of the genotype × environment (G × E) interaction on yield stability was estimated for 28 new sesame lines in the Beni Suwef, El-Beheira and El-Menoufia governorates in Egypt across 15 environments from 2019 to 2022 using AMMI analysis. The SALTMED model was used to predict the yield of sesame plants under five increasing air temperature scenarios (CC factor) to obtain future projections of sesame yield to determine the lines that are most genetically stable and facing CC. Variance analysis revealed significant differences in yield between the G and E groups and between the G × E interaction group. Fifteen genotypes yielded better control, and C6.4, C5.8 and C9.6 were selected as genetically stable according to AMMI analysis. The SALTMED model predicted that the yields of lines C3.8 and C6.2 were not affected under the high-temperature scenarios across the three governorates, moreover lines C1.8, C2.3, and, C6.12 productions were not affected under Beni Suwef and El-Beheira governorates. of lines C1.8, C2.3 and C6.12 were also not affected by the Beni Suwef or El-Beheira governorates. It is now possible to establish a hybridization programme in sesame that combines parents with high productivity and high resilience to CC.