Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet in Winter

Marcheggiani, Andrea; Robson, Jon; Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Bracegirdle, Thomas J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8868-4739; Smith, Doug. 2023 Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet in Winter. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (8), e2022GL102071. 9, pp. 10.1029/2022GL102071

Before downloading, please read NORA policies.

Preview

Text (Open Access)
© 2023 Crown copyright and The Authors. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the King's Printer for Scotland. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Geophysical Research Letters - 2023 - Marcheggiani - Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy‐Driven Jet in Winter.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.
Download (1MB) | Preview

Official URL: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.102...

Abstract/Summary

This paper expands on work showing that the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable on decadal timescales to quantify the skill in capturing the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet's location and speed. By focusing on decadal predictions made for years 2–9 from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project over 1960–2005 we find that there is significant skill in jet latitude and, especially, jet speed associated with the skill in the NAO. However, the skill in the NAO, jet latitude and speed indices appears to be sensitive to the period over which it is assessed. In particular, skill drops considerably when evaluating hindcasts up to the present day as models fail to capture the recent observed northern shift and strengthening of the winter eddy-driven jet, and more thus positive NAO. We suggest that the drop in atmospheric circulation skill is related to reduced skill in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1029/2022GL102071
ISSN:	0094-8276
Date made live:	28 Apr 2023 09:05 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534402

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1029/2022GL102071

ISSN:

0094-8276

Date made live:

28 Apr 2023 09:05 +0 (UTC)

URI:

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534402